Estimation of predictive potential of El Nino (La Nina) for long-term precipitation forecast in Iraq

Document Type : Research Paper


Soil Sciences and Water Resources, College of Agriculture, Wasit University, Wasit, IRAQ


The El Nino- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the most important form of tropical climate change. By modifying the distribution of rainfall and temperatures, it sometimes engenders devastating effects in many tropical regions and even in high latitudes. The aim of this study was to choose the El Nino event as a potential predictor for long-term precipitation forecast in Iraq in the presence of opposite patterns in Iraq's precipitation distribution at different phases of the El Nino event. The results indicate that calculating the frequency of occurrence of precipitation gradations in Iraq during the warm and cold phases of ENSO are presented in Tables 2 and 3.


Attafi, R, Darvishi Boloorani, A, M. Fadhil Al-Quraishi, A, Amiraslani, F 2021, Comparative analysis of NDVI and CHIRPS-based SPI to assess drought impacts on crop yield in Basrah Governorate, Iraq. Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences, 19: 547-557.
Baker PA et al. 2001, The history of South American tropical precipitation for the past 25 years. Science, 5504: 640-643.
Baker, RD, Lynn, BHL, Boone, A, Tao, WK & Simpson, J 2001, The influence of soil moisture, coastline curvature, and land breeze circulations on sea breeze initiated precipitation. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2: 193-211.
Boundi, A, Ait Yacine, Z 2021, Study of variability rainfall regime in an agricultural region with a semi-arid climate: Case of Tadla irrigated perimeter (continental Morocco). Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences, 19: 31-45
El Nino/ La Nina update.
Gustoev, DB 1991, El Nino phenomenon. Collection of works of LGMI - SPB: 50-60.
Gustoev, DB 2005, The El Nino phenomenon is part of the planet's climate system. Proceedings of the international school of the conference of young scientists. Climate Change and the Environment, RSHU - SPB: 209-219.
Hosseini, SM, Moosavi, SN, Najafi, B 2022, Agriculture, climate change and sustainability in Iran: Application of numerical taxonomy method and Panel-VAR. Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences, 20: 61-75.
Ngongol, HK 2011, Statistical forecasting of rainfall in the tropics based on data on ocean surface temperature and quasi-biennial fluctuations of the zonal flow on the example of East Africa. PhD Dissertation, for the Degree of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, St. Petersburg, RSHU.
Nikolaev GN 1998, Union of the ocean and atmosphere rules the climate. Science and Life, 1. S: 27-33.
Omidvar, K, Narangifard, M, Fatemi, M 2022, Analysing the relationship between geographical elements and precipitation patterns in the southern shores of the Caspian Sea. Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences, 20: 89-99.
Saravanan, R & Chang, P 1999, Interaction between tropical Atlantic variability and its predictability using the community climate system model. Journal of Climate, 12: 1-16.
Sodem, BJ 2000, The sensitivity of the tropical hydrological cycle to ENSO. Journal of Climate 13: 538-549.
Repolewsky, CF & Halpert, MS 1986, Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of southern oscillation. Journal of Climate, 2: 268-284.
Wang C 2001, A unified oscillator model for the El Nino / Southern Oscillation, Journal of Climate, 14: 98-115.