Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
Department of Environmental Science, Natural Resources Faculty, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran
2
National Security Research Institute of the University and the Higher National Defense Research Institute, Tehran, Iran
3
Department of Political Geography, School of Geography Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
10.22124/cjes.2026.9882
Abstract
The Caspian Sea has experienced significant water level fluctuations, making its changes and ecosystem impacts a crucial concern in recent decades. This study analyzed the long-term trend of Caspian Sea water levels from 1990 to 2023, along with their environmental, social, and economic consequences. Using Landsat 5 (1990) and Landsat 8 (2023) imagery within Google Earth Engine (GEE), the research revealed a 2.34-meter sea level decline across the North, Middle, and South Caspian Sea during this period, dropping from -26.18 m in 1990 to -28.52 m in 2023. Recent Caspian Sea level fluctuations pose multifaceted threats. Infrastructure, economic activities (ports, seafaring, fishing), and social uses are disrupted. Wetlands and bays are drying, coastal areas are expanding, and human encroachment on the sea is increasing, negatively impacting coastal aquifers. Geopolitically, declining sea levels imperil the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a key strategic link for Iran and Russia. This "silent legal trap" of falling sea levels, though under-addressed by geopolitical analysts, is poised to become a significant source of conflict among littoral states. A cross-sectoral and comprehensive integrated coastal management approach is crucial to address these challenges.
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