Economic impacts of climate change on agricultural production and adaptive strategies for farmers in the Fergana Valley, Uzbekistan

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Economics, Mamun University, Khiva, Uzbekistan, &1Department of Finance, Alfraganus University, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

2 Department of Finance and Tourism, Termez University of Economics and Service, Termez, Uzbekistan

3 Research Center "Scientific bases and issues of economic development Uzbekistan" under Tashkent State University of Economics.

4 International Islamic Academy of Uzbekistan, 11 Abdulla Qodiri Street, Tashkent, 100011, Uzbekistan

5 Department of Special Pedagogy, Chirchik State Pedagogical University, Chirchik, Republic of Uzbekistan

6 Tashkent University of Information Technologies named after Muhammad al-Khwarizmi, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

10.22124/cjes.2026.9361

Abstract

This study aimed to explore the economic impacts of climate change on agricultural production and analyze the adaptation strategies of farmers in the Fergana Valley, Uzbekistan. Based on a mixed-methods approach using structured interviews with 120 farmers and secondary data analysis, the findings revealed tangible consequences of the effects of climate change that now have become a major economic problem. Specifically, 94% of the surveyed farmers reported that summer temperature has increased significantly, and 88% mentioned that the decrease in spring precipitation, due to which wheat and cotton yields were reduced by an average of 17–20%. In the same vein, 92% of the respondents faced a significant increase in irrigation costs of 45–60%. These trends have generated a growing gap between costs and income, especially for smallholders, as 89% reported a decrease in income. On the contrary, whereas adaptation strategies-such as cropping date shifting with a 91% adoption rate-received widespread response, more effective and capital-intensive solutions, like drip irrigation with a 19% adoption rate, were narrowly applied due to structural barriers, such as high initial cost (95%) and access to credit (78%). The study concludes that, in order for this region to achieve effective and sustainable adaptation, one should move away from individual actions to designing integrated institutional support packages that allow for facilitation in access to financial resources, technical knowledge, and insurance.

Keywords

References

 
Abdurahmanov D, Xursandov I, Salaev D, Yusufov S, Abdulazizova S, Sayidova M, Surmanov S 2025, Climate change and its impact on local ecosystems: Solutions and sustainable management, Procedia Environmental Science, Engineering and Management, 12 (3): 913-922.
Akhmedova, UM 2025, The importance of mechanization in the development of agriculture in the fergana valley. Journal of Higher Education and Academic Advancement, 2(2): 20-33. https://doi.org/10.61796/ ejheaa.v2i2.1237.
Attiogbé, AAC, Nehren, U, Quansah, E, Bessah, E, Salack, S, Sogbedji, JM & Agodzo, SK 2024, Cocoa farmers’ perceptions of drought and adaptive strategies in the Ghana–Togo Transboundary Cocoa Belt. Land, 13(11): 1937, https://doi.org/10.3390/land13111737.
Bagheri, RB, Kalateh, A, Radi, V, Ghazanfarpour, M, Amini, PH, Dokoohaki, R, Nabimeybodi, R & Chabok, R 2024, Effect of herbs with anti-inflammatory activity on mastalgia and engorgement: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Revista Latinoamericana de Hipertensión, 19(8): 332-341, https://doi.org/ 10.5281/zenodo.14002638.
Bekimbetov, B, Ubaydullayev, A, Mukhtorova, S, Berdikulova, N, Saparboyeva, N, Rayxon, S & Esanov, O 2025, The role of agricultural education and watershed management in promoting eco-friendly knowledge and technologies for agricultural production in Uzbekistan. Procedia Environmental Science, Engineering and Management, 12(3): 951-960.
Dall’Ara, A, Grandini, P, Bellomo, M & Marianini, F 2025, From circular economy to regenerative agriculture: The case of Pollina Pav. Procedia Environmental Science, Engineering and Management, 12(4): 1125-1130.
De Leo, S, Di Fonzo, A, Giuca, S, Gaito, M & Bonati, G 2023, Economic implications for farmers in adopting climate adaptation measures in Italian agriculture. Land, 12(4): 906. https://doi.org/10.3390/ land12040906.
Grigorieva, EA, Livenets, AS & Stelmakh, E 2023, Adaptation of agriculture to climate change: A scoping review. Climate, 11(10): 202, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11100202.
Hassan, BA & Knight, J 2023, Adaptation to climate change and variability by farming households in North-Central Nigeria. Sustainability, 15(23): 16309, https://doi.org/10.3390/su152316309.
Khujakulova, N, Abdullaeva, D, Otakuzieva, Z, Sapaev, I, Yoqubov, D, Tursunov, M, Mamatov, A & Zokirov, K 2025, Impact of climate change on crop yields in Uzbekistan’s agricultural zones. Natural and Engineering Sciences, 3(4): 12-23, https://doi.org/10.28978/nesciences.1757006.
Kuzibaeva, O, Ulengov, R, Muminov, D, Boratov, A, Mahkamov, J,& Umarov, J 2025, Climate change and its impact on Southern Fergana landscapes. Journal of Open & Bioscience and Environment, 8(4): 55-64, https://doi.org/10.70728/jopen.be.0225.004.
Mavlyanova, R, Zokirov, K, Rasulov, K, Khudayberganov, K, Sherov, A & Turdibekov, Y 2024, Development of sustainable agriculture through the agricultural incomes stabilization. Economic Annals-XXI, 211(9-10): 29-34, https://doi.org/10.21003/ea.V211-04.
Menglikulov, Bakhtiyor Yu et al. 2025, "Approaches to categories of costs and organization of accounting in fruits and vegetables." Technological Horizons of Decarbonization Based on Environmental Innovations. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, pp. 169-172, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-82210-0_28 .
Mitrofanov, SV, Bukovsky, ME & Kakieva, SSE 2025, Impact of climate change on agriculture: Economic assessment of risks and adaptation measures. Ekonomika I Upravlenie: Problemy, Resheniya, 2(8): 18, https://doi.org/10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2025.02.08.018.
Nasir, J, Ashfaq, M, Baig, I, Punthakey, J, Culas, R, Ali, A & Hassan, F ul 2021, Socioeconomic impact assessment of water resources conservation and management to protect groundwater in Punjab, Pakistan. Water, 13(19): 2672, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13192672.
Park, S, Lim, C, Kim, S, Isaev, E, Choi, S-E, Lee, SD & Lee, WK 2021, Assessing climate change impact on cropland suitability in Kyrgyzstan: Where are potential high-quality cropland and the way to the future. Agronomy, 11(8): 1490, https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy11081490.
Indhumathi, R, Bostani, A, Srinivasan, A, Sindoori, R, Abdullayev, I, Abrorov, S & Gulom, M 2025, Hybrid quantum–cloud framework for nonlinear clustering optimization and intelligent resource management. Results in Nonlinear Analysis, 8(3): 26-35.
Prabhakar, M, Rao, M, Timmanna, H, Prasad, TV & Kumar, NV 2024, Climate change and its impact on pests of dryland crops. Indian Journal of Dryland Agricultural Research and Development, 39(1): 8-24. https://doi.org/10.5958/2231-6701.2024.00025.7.
Singh, A K, Ashraf, S & Sharma, S 2023, Farmer’s perception on climatic factors and social-economic characteristics in the agricultural sector of Gujarat. Research on World Agricultural Economy, 4(1): 30-42, https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.788.
Mamadiyarov, Zokir et al. 2024, "Forecasting and planning the effectiveness of service activities in commercial banks." Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Future Networks & Distributed Systems. https://doi.org/10.1145/3726122.3726136.
Turdaliev, AT, Askarov, K, Abakumov, E, Makhkamov, EG, Rahmatullayev, G, Mamajonov, G, Akhmadjonov, A & Axunov, A 2023, Biogeochemical state of salinized irrigated soils of Central Fergana (Uzbekistan, Central Asia). Applied Sciences, 13(10), 6188. https://doi.org/10.3390/app13106188.
Menglikulov, Bakhtiyor Yu et al. 2025, "Improving the organizational and methodological aspects of the current biological assets audit in livestock." Technological Horizons of Decarbonization Based on Environmental Innovations. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, pp. 185-190. https://doi.org/10.1007/ 978-3-031-82210-0_31.
Pandikumar, S, Bostani, A, Sundaranarayana, D, Fakhriddin, I, Alimjon, D, Ilkhom, U & Juraboyev, A 2025, AI-driven nonlinear optimization for knowledge extraction and pattern analysis in IoT-enabled data mining systems. Results in Nonlinear Analysis, 8(3): 36-46.
Usman, M, Ali, A, Bashir, M, Radulescu, M, Mushtaq, K, Wudil, A, Baig, S & Akram, R 2023, Do farmers’ risk perception, adaptation strategies, and their determinants benefit towards climate change? Implications for agriculture sector of Punjab, Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research International, 30(37): 87961-87978, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-27759-8.
Zokirov, K, Yusupov, A, Sherov, A, Abdullayev, D, Daminova, M & Umarova, Z 2024, The effect of foreign direct investment and human resources on economic progress of the agricultural sector in the selected developing countries of Asia (with the focus on Uzbekistan). Economic Annals-XXI, 212(11-12): 10-15. https://doi.org/10.21003/ea.V212-02.
Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences
Volume 23, Issue 5
Special issue: Biological Researches and Envireonment, Guest Editor: Prof. Hamed Mousavi-Sabet, University of Guilan, Iran
December 2025
Pages 1193-1200

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics