How does climate change affect agricultural production and water resources in Iran? An application of the system dynamics approach

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Marvdasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Iran

2 Department of Economics, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran

10.22124/cjes.2025.9088

Abstract

The dynamics of water resources are influenced by a variety of socio-economic and climatic factors. Climate change and population growth are particularly significant in shaping these dynamics. Therefore, it is crucial to identify and understand the potential impacts of these variables to ensure the sustainable use of water resources. This study offers a comprehensive assessment of the effects of climate change and population growth on water resources in the Doroudzan Dam basin in southern Iran, utilizing a system dynamics (SD) approach. An important objective of the model was to provide a learning tool for policy-makers to improve their understanding of the long-term dynamic behavior of the basin and as a decision-support tool for exploring plausible policy scenarios necessary for sustainable water resource management. The findings reveal a rise in water demand driven by population growth, as well as a decline in water supply due to severe drought. This imbalance between water supply and demand poses a serious threat to the region's water resources and supports the idea that the gap between supply and demand for water increases continuously and the water system becomes more vulnerable in the future. In the other section of this study, the effects of a climate change scenario were investigated using a combined WEAP and SD model. The results confirmed the negative impact of climate change on crop yield, crop water requirement, and water availability. Conversely, under moderate and optimistic scenarios, water abstraction decreases and agricultural production increases which can lead to greater self-sufficiency in the region. However, under a pessimistic scenario, water demand increases, leading to a potential water shortage.

Keywords

Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences

Articles in Press, Corrected Proof
Available Online from 27 September 2025

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