Predicting the impact of climate change on Ranunculus aucheri (Ranunculaceae) using species distribution modeling

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Plant sciences, Faculty of Biological sciences, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

10.22124/cjes.2025.9052

Abstract

The climate phenomenon is the biggest environmental challenge currently facing the world, impacting all ecosystems, including the distribution of plant species. This research aims to predict the climatic effects on the spatial distribution of the R. aucheri under the scenarios of the RCP8.5 (optimistic) and RCP2.6 (pessimistic) models for two-time scales: 2050 and 2080. It utilizes five species distribution modeling methods, including generalized linear models, classification tree analysis, artificial neural networks, generalized additive models, and random forests, within a consensus framework in R software. The results have been analysed and compared. The overall conclusion from these reports is that the most significant variables affecting the distribution of this species, based on the modeling results, are temperature, soil depth, precipitation, and sand content, in that order. Model evaluation indicates that this species will experience a reduction in its distribution area due to climate change and will also be introduced to other areas, with the least change being a 28.35% reduction in range under the optimistic scenario by 2050, and the most significant change being a 67.12% reduction in range under the pessimistic scenario by 2080. The results of this study can be utilized in conservation and corrective programs for the R.aucheri.

Keywords

References

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Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences

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Available Online from 16 September 2025

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