Predicting impacts of climate change on the distribution of Luciobarbus brachycephalus (Kessler, 1872) in the southern part of the Caspian Sea basin

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Fisheries Department, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Guilan, Sowmeh Sara, Guilan, Iran

2 Department of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

10.22124/cjes.2025.8957

Abstract

Iran is one of the most important biodiversity areas in the world. However, currently, most freshwater ecosystem fish species in this country face serious threats due to human activities. In addition to these threats, climate change is also a double threat that may accelerate extinction or decrease the population size of species. Luciobarbus brachycephalus is one of the native and valuable fishery species in the southern Caspian Sea Basin, which is categorized as endangered in the latest list provided by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). In this study, the distribution of the aforementioned species in two optimistic and pessimistic scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5) for 2050 and 2080 was predicted using the Maxent model. The results showed that the performance of the model in predicting species distribution based on the Area Under the Curve (AUC) criterion was excellent. Based on the predictions, it was found that this species will likely face a decrease in habitat suitability in the future in all optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for 2050 and 2080. The range of changes in all the mentioned situations is negative (i.e., the percentage of habitat suitability decrease is greater than its increase). Therefore, it is suggested that managers and decision-makers prioritize the protection of this economically important species to ensure that its population does not become completely extinct in the future. In addition, such a study of other species in the Iranian regions can effectively help protect the valuable biodiversity of this area against various threats, especially climate change.

Keywords

Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences

Articles in Press, Corrected Proof
Available Online from 10 August 2025

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