Predicting the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of Euphrates spiny eel Mastacembelus mastacembelus (Banks & Solander, 1794) in Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Environment, Bushehr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Bushehr, Iran

2 Department of Bio-diversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

3 Department of Biology, Faculty of Sciences, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran

10.22124/cjes.2024.7598

Abstract

The phenomenon of climate change is occurring more rapidly in the global climate due to the role of human factors than in other periods of climate change, and this feature causes the existing ecosystems and species to not have enough time to adapt to this environmental change. The impacts of climate change on the ‎spatial distribution of spiny eel Mastacembelus‏ ‏mastacembelus in Iran were investigated ‎ using the MaxEnt modeling technique in R software environment under optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios of the 2050s and 2080s. Six environmental variables, ‎including annual ‎precipitation, slope, flow accumulation, temperature annual range, annual ‎mean temperature, and upstream drainage area were used. The performance of the model in predicting the species was ‎"good" based on the AUC (area under the curve) criterion. This spatial distribution of species will decrease under ‎optimistic and pessimistic scenarios in 2050 and 2080. These results can be used by the manager in order to plan conservational strategies to protect this species in the future in front of climate change impacts.

Keywords


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