Impact of future climate change on land and water productivity for wheat crop (Wasit Governorate, Iraq)

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Al-Farahidi University, Baghdad, Iraq

2 Ministry of Resources, Baghdad, Iraq

3 College of Agriculture Engineering Sciences University of Baghdad, Iraq



In AquaCrop model was used to calibrate and verify the performance of the winter wheat crop in south of Iraq Al-Suwaira Research Station using data recorded in period 1/1/2008 and 31/12/2017. The results showed an increase in both annual and monsoon rains at the mid and end century periods for both RCP4.5 and REP8.5 scenarios implementing model GFDL-ESM2M. The annual and monsoon rains decreased in the EC-Earth model for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, while increased slightly in the CNRM-CM5 model under RCP4.5 and dropped with RCP8.5. Highest yield was recorded at the base period (2.36 ton/hectare) during the simulation period. The water productivity increased compared to the base period 2040-2050, while it was equal for both base period and the period 2020-2030 and in the RCP8.5 scenario.


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