Water resources sustainability under climate variability and population growth in Iran: A system dynamics approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

Abstract

The change in availability of water resources has a dynamic behavior and is influenced by many factors such as population growth and climate variability over time.  Understanding the impacts of such factors on water resources vulnerability is essential for ensuring the sustainability of future water resources. In this study, a water resources sustainable index is built using a system dynamics model to assess the effects of different scenarios at the Kowsar dam basin in southwestern Iran where managing water resources is serious challenging due to periodic drought. Based on the baseline scenario, the total population, as well as total water demand, will increase and water supply will decrease throughout the simulated period. Therefore, the imbalanced supply-demand of water can cause the water system vulnerable. In this regard, water management policies should concentrate on the demand side of water to address the problem of water resource shortage in a good manner. Although pessimistic climatic conditions along with population growth put the water system in the worse situation of water availability, where the demand control policies likely help meet the increasing water demand. Compared to the pessimistic conditions, the water sustainability index improves in normal and optimistic conditions. The highest sustainability index was obtained after controlling water demand in optimistic weather condition. Consequently, the government should provide a context in which people learn to control their daily water consumption. Also, it suggests that we can conserve water resources in the agricultural sector with conservation policies.

Keywords

References

Abbaszadeh M & Şişman T 2021, An application of histological technique for monitoring health status of fish species, Leuciscus aspius (Linnaeus, 1758) inhabiting Aras River, Iran. Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences, 19: 187-199.
Arnell N & Liu C 2001, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge, UK Cambridge University Press, pp. 191-233.
Ashtiani G, Mahdavi M, Malekian A & Motamedvaziri B 2016, Groundwater modeling for estimation of the recharge rate and identification of appropriate recharge sites in Damghan Plain, Iran, Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences, 14: 139-153.
Atherton, J T 2013, A system dynamics approach to water resources and food production in the Gambia. A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering Science. The University of Western Ontario London, Ontario, Canada. 1-106.
Balali H & Viaggi D 2015, applying a system dynamics approach for modeling groundwater dynamics to depletion under different economical and climate change scenarios. Water, 7: 5258-5271.
Bates B C, Hope P, Ryan B, Smith I & Charles S 2008, Key findings from the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative and their impact on policy development in Australia. Climatic Change, 89: 339-354.
Davies E G & Simonovic S P 2011, Global water resources modeling with an integrated model of the social–economic–environmental system. Advances in Water Resources, 34: 684-700.
Dawadi S & Ahmad S 2013, Evaluating the impact of demand-side management on water resources under changing climatic conditions and increasing population. Journal of Environmental Management, 114: 261-275.
Draper F 1993, A proposed sequence for developing systems thinking in a grades 4 – 12 curriculum. System Dynamics Review, 9: 207-214.
Ford F & Ford A 1999, Modeling the environment: an introduction to system dynamics models of environmental systems. Island Press.
Forrester J W 1961, Industrial dynamics. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 48: 1037-1041.
Forrester J W 1994, System dynamics, systems thinking, and soft OR. System Dynamics Review, 10: 245-256.
Forrester JW 1997, Counterintuitive behavior of social systems. Theory and Decision, 2: 109-140.
Frank M 2000, Engineering systems thinking and systems thinking. Systems Engineering, 3: 163-168.
Gain A K & Giupponi C 2015, A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk in the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin: An integrated approach. Ecological Indicators, 48: 120-131.
Gohari A, Mirchi A & Madani K 2017, System dynamics evaluation of climate change adaptation strategies for water resources management in central Iran. Water Resources Management, 31: 1413-1434.
Hashimoto T, Stedinger J R & Loucks D P 1982, Reliability, resiliency and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation. Water Resource Research, 18: 14–20.
Hassanzadeh E, Elshorbagy A, Wheater H & Gober P 2014, Managing water in complex systems: An integrated water resources model for Saskatchewan, Canada. Environmental Modelling & Software, 58: 12-26.
Jury W A & Vaux H 2005, The role of science in solving the world's emerging water problems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 102: 15715-15720.
Juwana I 2012, Development of a water sustainability index for West Java, Indonesia. Victoria University.
Kalra A & Ahmad S 2009, Using oceanic‐atmospheric oscillations for long lead time stream flow forecasting. Water Resources Research, 45: 1-18.
Kalra A, Li L, Li X & Ahmad S 2012, Improving stream flow forecast lead time using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations for Kaidu River Basin, Xinjiang, China. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 18: 1031-1040.
Klemes V, Srikanthan R & McMahon T A 1981, Long-memory flow models in reservoir analysis: What is their practical value?. Water Resources Research, 17: 737–751.
Kotir J H, Smith C, Brown G, Marshall N & Johnstone R 2016, A system dynamics simulation model for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin, Ghana. Science of the Total Environment, 573: 444-457.
Loucks D P 1997, Quantifying trends in system sustainability. Hydrology Science Journal, 42: 513–530.
Madani K & Mariño M A 2009, System dynamics analysis for managing Iran’s Zayandeh-Rud river basin. Water Resources Management, 23: 2163-2187.
Madani K 2014, Water management in Iran: what is causing the looming crisis?. Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 4:315-328.
Mancosu N, Snyder R L, Kyriakakis G & Spano D 2015, Water scarcity and future challenges for food production. Water, 7: 975-992.
McMahon T A, Adeloye A J & Sen-Lin Z 2006, Understanding performance measures of reservoirs.  Journal of Hydrology, (Amsterdam), 324: 359–382.
Milly  P C D, Betancourt J, Falkenmark M, Hirsch R M, Kundzewicz Z W, Lettenmaier D P & Stouffer R J 2008, Stationary is dead: Whither water management?. Science, 319: 573-574.
Mirchi A 2013, System dynamics modeling as a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management: Insights for water quality policy in the great lakes region (Doctoral dissertation, Michigan Technological University).
Moy W S, Cohon J L & Revelle C S 1986, A programming model for analysis of reliability, resilience and vulnerability of a water supply reservoir. Water Resources Research, 22: 489.
Mulligan M & Wainwright J 2013, Modelling and model building. Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity, 7-26. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118351475.ch2
Nikolaevich Makarov A, Vladimirovna Maksyutina E, Azretovich Hubiev K & Damirovich Gimadeev A 2020, Global and national food security issues in the context of land and water resources. Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences, 18: 467-472.
Qin H P,  Su Q & Khu S T 2011, An integrated model for water management in a rapidly urbanizing catchment. Environmental Modelling & Software, 26: 1502-1514.
Regional Water Organization of Kogiluyeh and Boyerahmad Province 2017, http://www.kbrw.ir/SC.php?type=static&id=2.
Rehan R, Knight M A, Haas C T & Unger A J A 2011, Application of system dynamics for developing financially self-sustaining management policies for water and wastewater systems. Water Research, 45: 4737-4750.‏
Research Center of Iranian Parliament 2017, Report of west and southwest dust storms causes, origins, foci and forecasts. Center of Iranian Parliament, Tehtan, Iran, 1-53.
Sandoval-Solis S, McKinney D C, Teasley R L & Patino-Gomez C 2011, Groundwater banking in the Rio Grande basin. Journal of Water Resources Planning Management, 137: 62–71.
Senge P M & Forrester J  W 1980, Tests for building confidence in system dynamics models. System Dynamics, TIMS Studies in Management Sciences, 14: 209-228.
Simonovic S P 2012, managing water resources: methods and tools for a systems approach. Rutledge.
Statistical Center of Iran 2017,  https://www.amar.org.ir.
Steel R G D & Torrie J H 1960, Principles and Procedures of Statistics. McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York, 481.
Sterman J D 2000, Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. McGraw-Hill Higher Education, New York, 31.
Sterman, J D 2012, Sustaining sustainability: creating a systems science in a fragmented academy and polarized world. Sustainability Science, 2: 21-58.
Sušnik J, Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L S, Savić D A & Kapelan Z 2012, Integrated System Dynamics Modelling for water scarcity assessment: Case study of the Kairouan region. Science of the total environment, 440: 290-306.‏
UNDATA 2017, Average annual rate of population changes,    https://data.un.org/Data.aspx?q=population&d=PopDiv&f=variableID%3a47
Ventana Systems Inc 2011, Vensim Reference Manual. Ventana System Inc.
Vörösmarty CJ 2010, Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. 467-555
Wang X  J, Zhang J Y, Liu J F, Wang G Q, He R M, Elmahdi A & Elsawah S 2011, Water resources planning and management based on system dynamics: a case study of Yulin city. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 13: 331-351.‏
Wu G, Li L, Ahmad S, Chen X & Pan X 2013, A dynamic model for vulnerability assessment of regional water resources in arid areas: a case study of Bayingolin, China. Water Resource Management, 27: 3085-3101.
Xiao-jun W, Jian-yun Z, Shahid S, ElMahdi A, Rui-min H, Zhen-xin B & Ali M 2012, Water resources management strategy for adaptation to droughts in China. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 17: 923-937.
Zhuang Y 2014, A system dynamics approach to integrated water and energy resources management. Graduate Theses and Dissertations. University of South Florida, Florida, United Stated: 1-217.
 
Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences
Volume 19, Issue 3
July 2021
Pages 441-455

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics