Monitoring and prediction of drought using TIBI fuzzy index in Iran

Document Type : Research Paper


Department of Physical Geography, Climatology, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran


The drought phenomenon is not specific to the region, affecting different parts of the world. One of these areas is Iran in Southwest Asia, suffering from this phenomenon in recent years. The purpose of this study was to model, analyze and predict the drought in Iran. So that, climatic parameters (precipitation, temperature, sunshine, minimum relative humidity and wind speed) were used at 30 stations during 29 years (1990-2018). For modelling the TIBI fuzzy index, at first, four indicators (SET, SPI, SEB, and MCZI) were been fuzzy in MATLAB software. Then the indices were compared and the TOPSIS model was used for prioritizing areas involved drought, followed by employing ANFIS adaptive artificial neural network model for predicting drought. Results showed that the new fuzzy index TIBI for classifying drought reflected four above indicators with high accuracy. Of these five climatic parameters used in this study, the temperature and precipitation exhibited the most impact on the fluctuation of drought severity. The severity of drought was more based on 6-month scale modelling than on 12-month one. The highest rate of drought occurrence was found at the Bandar Abbas station with 24.30% on a 12-month scale, and while the lowest was at the Shahrekord station with 0.36% on a six-month scale. Based on ANFIS model and TIBI fuzzy index, Bandar Abbas, Bushehr and Zahedan stations were more encountered ones to drought due to the TIBI index of 0.62, 0.96 and 0.97 respectively. According to the results in both 6- and 12-month scales, the southern regions of Iran were more severely affected by drought, which requires suitable water management in these areas.


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