Economic growth and atmospheric pollution in Uzbekistan: A regional test of the environmental kuznets curve

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Faculty of Economics, Department Management and Marketing, Alfraganus University, Tashkent, Uzbekistan; Faculty of Economics, Department Finance and Credit, National University of Uzbekistan named after Mirzo Ulugbek, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

2 Department of “Financial analysis,Tashkent State University of Economics, Tashkent, Uzbekistan; Department of “General economic disciplines”, University of Tashkent for Applied Sciences, Str. Gavhar 1, Tashkent 100149, Uzbekistan

3 Department of “Financial analysis, Tashkent State University of Economics, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

4 Department of “Economics and Finance, Tashkent International University, Little Ring Road 7, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

5 Department of Department of “Financial analysis, Tashkent State University of Economics, Uzbekistan

6 Department of Public Administration, Tashkent State University of Law, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

7 Department of “Statistics and Econometrics”, Bukhara State University,

10.22124/cjes.2026.10023

Abstract

Atmospheric pollution is a growing constraint on sustainable development in rapidly transforming economies, yet subnational evidence for Central Asia remains scarce. This study investigates the regional determinants of directly reported atmospheric pollutant emissions in Uzbekistan using a balanced panel of 14 administrative regions over 2010–2024 (210 region-year observations). The analysis combines atmospheric emissions with gross regional product (GRP) per capita, industrial output, electricity production and heat production from harmonized official statistical datasets. To test the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) while controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, pooled OLS, region fixed effects, year fixed effects and two-way fixed effects are estimated with region-clustered standard errors. The preferred two-way fixed-effects model explains 89.2% of the variation in log emissions (adjusted R² = 0.873). The centered log of GRP per capita is positive but statistically insignificant (0.487; p = 0.477), while its squared term is negative and insignificant (-0.027; p = 0.661), providing no robust evidence of an inverted-U EKC. Industrial output and electricity production are also statistically insignificant after region and year effects are absorbed. Heat production remains negatively associated with reported emissions (-0.241; p = 0.039), and this result is robust to Driscoll-Kraay inference (p < 0.001), exclusion of the income or industrial blocks, and a first-difference specification (-0.174; p = 0.008). The findings indicate that regional structural conditions and energy-system characteristics matter more for atmospheric emissions than income growth alone, supporting spatially differentiated industrial, heating and air-quality policies.

Keywords

References

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Note: I retained the ellipsis in the Burkhanov et al. author list because the full author information was not supplied. I also kept the original publication details for institutional datasets and book chapters where DOI or publisher information was absent or incomplete.
Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences
Volume 24, Issue 4
October 2026
Pages 1115-1124

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